JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, September 16, 2025/APO Group: The global specialist risk consultancy Control Risks has released the 10th edition of its flagship Africa Risk-Reward Index (ARRI), developed in partnership with Oxford Economics Africa.
The 2025 edition of the ARRI marks a decade of tracking the economies of 24 African markets, ensuring the political, security, and economic insights remain truly data-driven.
ARRI stresses upon diversity of African markets in noting that aggregate risks across the continent have remained broadly flat since 2017, with reward levels largely rebounding, with the real story as divergent. The reform-minded economies are pulling ahead, while anchor markets face execution challenges.
“Africa will reward organisations that build resilient, regionally integrated models – not those relying on single-buyer, single-market strategies,” explains the Associate Director, Control Risks, Patricia Rodrigues.
The 2025 ARRI further shows that companies succeeding on the continent are the ones embracing localised strategies: building for regional demand, investing in local value chains, and structuring for domestic volatility.
The report remarks that reform-led markets offer early-mover advantages, while anchor economies require conditional investment tied to tangible reforms. Across all markets, regional integration and local capital are reshaping how growth is scaled and financed.
ARRI has identified the following emerging market trends set to shape the performance of companies in 2025 and beyond:
• Industrial policy is reshaping value chains. From Guinea to Mozambique, countries are moving from raw material exports to regional specialisation.
• Corridor economics are gaining traction. Projects like the Lobito Corridor are catalysing cross-border industrial initiatives and inspiring similar ventures.
• Local capital is waking up. Panda and samurai bonds, deeper pension pools and rising domestic debt shares are transforming the funding landscape.
• Strategic repositioning is underway. Africa is no longer waiting for external financing but is industrialising on its own terms.
“The aid era is ending; the operating era is here,” added Rodrigues.
