By Shruti Menon Seeboo
Mauritius stands at a critical juncture where climate risk meets economic opportunity. A new World Bank Group report, the Mauritius Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), reveals that while the nation is highly vulnerable to the shifting global climate, a strategic shift towards a ‘Green and Blue’ economy could generate up to 32,000 jobs by 2030.
The CCDR, launched today by the Government of Mauritius and the World Bank Group, identifies a series of vital reforms and investments intended to build national resilience, expand economic opportunities, and ensure that the Mauritian workforce is equipped to thrive in a low-carbon future. The report underscores a sense of urgency: if reforms are not rapidly undertaken, climate impacts could reduce the nation’s GDP by up to 4 per cent by 2050.
The report highlights that climate change is a cross-cutting risk for the island, amplifying natural disasters, disrupting agricultural yields, and threatening the unique biodiversity and critical infrastructure that sustain the nation. A central paradox identified in the CCDR is that Mauritius faces exceptionally high adaptation costs due to its exposure to both sudden-onset hazards (such as flash floods) and slow-onset hazards (such as sea-level rise), despite the country contributing a mere 0.01 per cent to global greenhouse gas emissions.
Water scarcity has emerged as the central challenge of this decade, with competing demands from the tourism sector, agricultural irrigation, and growing household needs creating a complex resource management crisis. However, the CCDR posits that climate-smart investments can yield massive economic dividends. By adopting adaptation and low-carbon measures, Mauritius can unlock co-benefits for growth, energy security, and inclusive job creation.
The Strategic Framework: Expanding the Three Rs
To navigate this complex landscape, the report suggests adopting a tripartite strategy: Reinforce, Reorientate and Reduce. These are not merely administrative categories; they represent a fundamental restructuring of how the island nation interacts with its environment and its economy.
- Reinforce macro-fiscal and institutional foundations
- Implement growth-sensitive fiscal reforms and rebuild fiscal buffers.
- Strengthen climate governance and coordination.
- Close the green skills gap through targeted education and labour market programs.
- Mobilize private climate finance through roadmaps and de-risking strategies.
2. Reorientate key sectors
- Promote sustainable tourism by diversifying inland offerings and enforcing climate-resilient licensing.
- Enhance the blue economy through marine spatial planning and legal reforms to support sustainable fishing and ocean conservation actions.
- Accelerate the renewable energy transition with updated electricity plans and tariff reforms.
3. Reduce exposure and vulnerability
- Invest in coastal protection, climate-proof Port Louis, and upgrade public transport.
- Strengthen disaster risk reduction systems and expand inclusive social protection.
- Reform water management and pricing to ensure long-term sustainability.
The CCDR outlines ten high-impact policy recommendations, from fiscal reform and climate finance to coastal protection and water sector transformation. Delivering on the CCDR’s recommendations will require $5.6 billion in additional investment over the next 25 years (in net present value terms). With an estimated annual gap of $213 million, public finances must play a catalytic role in mobilising private capital. Domestic banks, insurers, pension funds, and payments for ecosystem services can help close the gap, provided the public sector leads in de-risking investments.
The Institutional Vision: Sjamsu Rahardja
The launch of the CCDR represents more than just the publication of data; it is the culmination of an intensive, multi-year collaborative effort that began far from the shores of the Indian Ocean. Sjamsu Rahardja, the World Bank Group Resident Representative for Mauritius, opened the proceedings by framing the report as a ‘flagship’ diagnostic that bridges the gap between international expertise and local lived experience.
Rahardja reflected on the timeline of the project, noting that the seeds were sown exactly one year ago. ‘It was last year, around this month, in London that we initiated this process,’ he remarked. ‘This process resulted in what is a flagship report for us, for the full World Bank Group. I would like to express my sincere appreciation to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Environment, Solid Waste Management and Climate Change for the leadership, guidance, and close collaboration throughout.’
Beyond the ministerial level, Rahardja emphasised that the report’s strength lies in its wide-reaching consultations. He specifically credited Business Mauritius, civil society organisations, the UK Task Force, and the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) for their contributions. He also noted the vital role of the UN Regional Office in facilitating discussions among development partners, ensuring that the CCDR is not a static document but a ‘clear and actionable framework’ for aligning development with physical survival.
Central to Rahardja’s perspective is the idea of ‘enabling conditions’. He argues that for Mauritius to succeed, it must look beyond simple infrastructure and focus on the systemic environment that allows adaptation to flourish.
He said, “By improving the enabling conditions for climate adaptation initiatives, such as coastal protection, water security, infrastructure resilience, and loan de-risking, and facilitating the implementation of low-carbon solutions such as renewable energy and energy efficiency, Mauritius can unlock new opportunities for growth, jobs, and wellbeing while safeguarding its people and environment.”
Rahardja’s vision suggests that the CCDR is a bridge. It allows the government to move from high-level dialogue to a concrete ‘to-do list’, ensuring that every rupee spent on a sea wall or a solar farm contributes to a broader, more resilient economic architecture.
The Economic Narrative: Hon. Dhaneshwar Damry
Following the institutional overview, Hon. Dhaneshwar Damry, Mauritius’ Junior Minister of Finance, provided a stirring and candid assessment of the fiscal realities facing the island. For Damry, the CCDR is not merely an environmental treatise, but an ‘economic story’ about how a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) can survive and flourish in a world likely to breach the 1.5°C global temperature threshold.
Damry’s address was marked by a poignant warning against complacency. He asked the audience to imagine a movie scene where people sit in their living rooms, looking at old photographs and lamenting ‘the good old days’. “When it comes to climate,” he asserted, “we cannot and must not allow that to happen. The stakes are too high. Without action, climate change could reduce economic growth, with tourism revenues falling as much as 11 per cent.”
He acknowledged that the 1.5°C breach is no longer a distant threat but a looming reality that brings stronger storms, erratic rainfall, and mounting pressure on the nation’s water resources. He framed the CCDR as the tool to shift from ‘dialogue to action’, using its findings to guide investment and mobilise the private capital necessary to accelerate a job-creating transition.
A recurring theme in Damry’s address was the discrepancy between policy promises and the daily reality of Mauritian citizens. He spoke movingly about the water crisis in his own constituency, where residents have suffered for years without a reliable supply. He shared a staggering statistic: from the point of water capture to the point it reaches a citizen’s tap, roughly 65 per cent of the water is lost.
“In this modern day and age, it is inconceivable in a country like Mauritius, where we have such great aspirations, such great dreams, to face such kinds of problems,” Damry stated. He called for a fundamental shift in the ‘say-to-do ratio’—a concept he credited to discussions with World Bank colleagues—proposing that the CCDR serves as the definitive manual for the ‘do’ phase of national development.
The most daunting aspect of the report is the financial requirement. Damry noted that Mauritius will need approximately USD $8.5 billion over the next 25 years to meet its NDC 3.0 commitments. This breaks down to roughly $340 million every year, a figure representing about 1.5 per cent of the national GDP and 35 per cent of the total annual capital budget.
“This is clearly not possible to be executed by the government alone,” Damry admitted. He used this reality to issue a direct challenge to the private sector and the banking industry. He noted that while bankers are often accused of ‘giving you an umbrella when it’s sunny and removing it when it’s raining,’ the climate crisis has seen an exception: “The bankers are keeping the umbrella while it is still raining.” He cited the fact that local banks are already receiving facilities to lend specifically to climate projects as a sign of hope.
Damry’s most ambitious proposal was to leverage the nation’s existing strength as an International Finance Centre to become a hub for International Climate Finance. He argued that international funds often overlook Mauritius because of its small size. By creating a ‘basket of products’ and positioning Mauritius as a jurisdiction for international climate funds serving the Global South and Africa, the nation could attract the massive capital necessary to fund its own transition. He concluded with a firm, measurable target for ‘Team Mauritius’: “Can we reach that target of $300 million of investments in climate projects this year? I would not like to tell you promises about promises. I would like to tell you as Team Mauritius we have taken on the $300-odd million of capital projects in climate action. This is clearly our mission for this year.”
Environmental stewardship and the “Lived Reality”: Hon. Rajesh Anand Bhagwan
While the fiscal roadmap focuses on the “how” of financing, Hon. Rajesh Anand Bhagwan, Minister of Environment, Solid Waste Management and Climate Change, grounded the launch in the harrowing physical reality of the island’s ecological fragility. His address served as a stark reminder that for Mauritius, climate change is not a laboratory projection but a “lived reality” that has already claimed lives and livelihoods.
Minister Bhagwan began by invoking the collective memory of the 30 March 2013 flash floods, an event that remains the psychological benchmark for climate vulnerability in Port Louis.
“The flash floods of 30 March 2013 were a real eye-opener for the population of Mauritius,” the Minister remarked. “They exposed how vulnerable we are to climate extremes. This report confirms that climate change is not a distant threat but our economic and social lived reality.”
He noted with concern that the decade following 2013 has seen a “new normal” of extreme weather. He shared that January 2026 turned out to be the seventh driest in 20 years, with rainfall at a mere 48 per cent of the seasonal norm. This volatility makes the CCDR’s emphasis on “Resilience” the top priority for his Ministry.
The Minister presented a stark set of projections regarding coastal risk that represent an existential threat to the nation’s primary economic assets:
- Shoreline Retreat: By 2050, the coastline is projected to retreat between 5 and 50 metres, a shift that will partially or totally affect more than 4,000 buildings.
- Long-term Displacement: By 2100, the retreat could reach 10 to 60 metres, impacting nearly 90,000 buildings.
- Coastal Submersion: Maximum water levels at the coastline during storm surges are projected to surpass 3.45 to 4.5 metres.
“These are not just abstract figures,” the Minister emphasised. “They represent our tourism assets, our ports, our critical infrastructure, and entire coastal communities.” He noted that beach retreat alone could result in revenue losses of USD $50 million annually in the tourism sector by 2050.
Minister Bhagwan issued a stinging critique of the current global approach to climate recovery. He questioned the logic of “rebuilding the same structure, in the same place, with the same materials,” only to wait for the next cyclone to strike. Instead, he called for a systemic transformation—shifting from fragile overhead power lines to underground energy systems and implementing new, stringent construction standards.
He made a passionate plea for Climate Justice, reminding the audience that Mauritius contributes only 0.01 per cent to global emissions yet faces a total incremental financing need of USD $11.3 billion for its NDC 3.0 implementation.
“Ambition without financing remains as spiritual as a prayer,” the Minister stated. “Our responsibility is clear: to act decisively and in a timely manner, build resilience, inform and empower our people, protect our natural assets, and safeguard our nation’s future.”
Technical Foundations: The Science of Risk and Adaptation
The scientific “engine room” of the Mauritius CCDR was detailed by Ana Bucher, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank, who provided the evidence-based scaffolding for the nation’s ambitions. Bucher opened her technical briefing by acknowledging the massive collaborative effort behind the document, which was co-authored by over 20 specialists from the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC). She framed the report not as a static document, but as an evolving “conceptual framework” designed to translate complex climate hazards—such as rising ocean temperatures, changes in precipitation, and storm surges—into actionable economic data.
Bucher emphasised that the report was built on the best available science to make sense of the three most critical hazards facing the island: land and ocean temperature increases, erratic rainfall patterns, and foreseeable sea-level rise. One of the most sobering revelations in her presentation was the “Compound Shock” analysis. While a steady decline in growth is a concern, Bucher warned of the danger when climate events collide with global economic instability. “What happens if all these shocks happen in quick succession?” she asked. “For example, if we have a sharp drop in tourism earnings like we had in 2008 or 2009, a spike in global food and fuel prices that we saw in 2022, and a significant natural disaster—as we know cyclones are a very high risk. If all that combined in a succession, plus the impact of climate change, we could see a GDP contraction of up to 10 per cent in a single year.” Such a scenario would not only damage the national treasury but would likely push the number of households living in poverty from the current 6 per cent to as high as 9 per cent.
The overall message, however, was one of opportunity. Bucher argued that while climate change threatens the success of the world and the economy, it also offers a way to “reshape the economy for a more sustainable, resilient future.” To do this, she detailed how the “Three Rs” function as the basis of the analysis. Reorienting the economy involves a deep-dive into the sectors that drive Mauritius. For the tourism sector, revenues are projected to decline by 6 to 11 per cent by 2050 under a “Business as Usual” scenario due to rising temperatures and resource stress. Bucher highlighted that an upcoming IFC study will provide a roadmap to pivot toward higher-value, sustainable tourism models. Similarly, the Blue Economy faces a decline in “maximum catch potential” of 25 per cent by 2100 as fish migrate to deeper, colder waters due to ocean acidification. Yet, with strategic management of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), she projected the creation of 2,500 new jobs in aquaculture and marine biotech.
Regarding energy, Bucher noted that while the installation of renewable infrastructure requires a significant investment of approximately $1 billion, the switch would cut electricity generation costs by about 25 per cent and create 7,000 new jobs. The second R—Reinforcing—focuses on the foundations of this transformation, specifically in fiscal institutions and skills. The third R—Reducing exposure—is where the largest adaptation investments are required. Bucher was candid about the inefficiencies in current water systems, revealing that while 88 per cent of total rainfall is collected, deficiencies in infrastructure mean that only a fraction is effectively used. “From that 8 per cent collected, only around 3 per cent is really considered, and then it gets to 35 per cent use,” she explained. The opportunity lies in innovation, infrastructure upgrades, and technology such as desalination.
Finally, Bucher addressed the critical need for food security and resilient infrastructure. She suggested that rather than always constructing new roads, Mauritius should focus on “retrofitting the road network” and upgrading ports to handle extreme events. By investing in heat and drought-tolerant crop varieties and smart irrigation, Bucher believes Mauritius can become a “model of innovation for food systems in the Indian Ocean region.” She concluded by stating that the stakes are undeniably high, but the CCDR is a proposal of options for consideration that allows the country to “boost economic growth, jobs, and wellbeing without really blowing the budget.”
Technical Foundations: The Economics of Resilience
While the physical risks are stark, Andrew Blackman, Senior Economist at the World Bank provided the economic roadmap required to turn these challenges into a sustainable growth engine. His address moved beyond the “what” of climate change to the “how” of financing, focusing on the third “R” of the CCDR framework: Reinforcing the foundations for inclusive growth.
Blackman was clear that climate action cannot happen in a vacuum of fiscal instability. He emphasised the need for “fiscal consolidation” as a prerequisite for securing the confidence of international investors.
“Consolidation is critical, both to secure public finances and also to boost confidence and create the environment for stronger climate action,” Blackman stated.
He noted that the CCDR’s “Business as Usual” (BAU) scenario depicts a worrying trend: without structural reforms, public debt would remain above the government’s 75% target, hitting 80.7% of GDP. To counter this, Blackman advocated for opening key sectors to greater foreign investment and completing structural reforms initiated in the latest budget, including personal income tax and pension reforms.
The most critical part of Blackman’s economic modelling was the breakdown of the USD $5.6 billion investment requirement over the next 25 years. This includes $4.2 billion for mitigation (energy transition) and $1.4 billion for structural adaptation measures.
- The Annual Gap: Mauritius currently receives approximately $37 million per year from development partners. This leaves an annual investment gap of roughly $230 million.
- The 80/20 Private-Public Split: Blackman proposed a strategic split in financing. For renewable energy and structural investments, the model assumes 80% of the funding will come from the private sector, with the government providing only 20% as catalytic capital.
- Catalytic Financing: He suggested the government use public funds—specifically from the Climate Sustainability Fund (CSF)—to provide “first-loss guarantees” and grants that “de-risk” projects, making them bankable for domestic banks, pension funds, and insurance companies.
A central warning in Blackman’s address was that the labour market must not become the “binding constraint” to the green transition. To reach the target of 32,000 new jobs, Mauritius must ensure that its own citizens, rather than foreign workers, are equipped to handle the roles.
“Education and skills deployment are essential,” Blackman argued. “We need to ensure that Mauritius workers are those that can benefit and really grasp those opportunities for green transformation.”
He recommended three immediate actions: establishing a Labour Market Information System to profile needed skills, reforming government scholarship programs to target green tech, and investing in active “re-skilling” programs for workers in declining traditional sectors.
Blackman presented three distinct pathways for the Mauritian economy:
- Business as Usual (BAU): Maintains current market structures but sees GDP contract as climate shocks become more frequent.
- Aspirational Development Scenario: Catalyses transformation through seaport upgrades and the renewable energy transition, increasing growth at a small fiscal cost.
- Resilient Development Scenario: The most ambitious path. It includes heavy investment in coastal protection, irrigation, and water storage. While this requires a higher upfront cost (2.2% of GDP annually), it significantly reduces climate-related losses and boosts long-term growth.
Blackman concluded by outlining ten short-to-medium-term priorities derived from the CCDR’s chapters. These include:
- Water Reform: Immediate investment to reduce water loss and reform tariff methodologies.
- Tourism Diversification: Moving away from beachfront-only development to inland, mountain, and eco-tourism under more stringent sustainability licensing.
- Infrastructure Retrofitting: A policy shift towards “maintaining and improving existing assets” and expanding public transport rather than simply building more flood-prone roads.
- Social Protection: Expanding the Social Register of Mauritius to make it “adaptive,” ensuring that the most vulnerable populations—who are often bypassed—receive the benefits of climate-resilience funding.
